It’s not news that the delivery of video content is changing dramatically. Consumers want an anywhere, anytime media experience; and content owners are doing all they can to meet their needs. But with so many choices now available, I was curious to know which delivery method broadcast industry insiders think will grow the fastest.
To find out, I included the following question in the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey:
”Which of these delivery methods do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?”
- WiMAX
- Terrestrial
- Cable
- Downloads to mobile devices
- Satellite
- Mobile TV
- IPTV
- Broadband / Streaming (web TV)
Almost 5000 people in 110 countries responded and their answers are shown below, broken down by geography to show regional variation:
Which method of content delivery do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?
Keep in mind that this question asked which delivery method will grow the fastest, not which one do you think will win in the long-term, or which one are you willing to pay $50 per month for. It also asked about growth in percentage terms, so if a distribution method is small today it can grow quickly in percentage terms from a small base, while it’s much more difficult for established content delivery methods such as cable & satellite to grow in percentage terms.
Nevertheless, the respondents expect to see major changes in content delivery methods over the next three years, led by “Broadband / Streaming.” In fact, with the exception of Asia, all geographies expect broadband / streaming delivery of content to be the fastest growing delivery methods, which is interesting news for CDNs. In Asia (excluding China), IPTV is predicted to be the fastest growing content delivery medium. All territories therefore expect the current incumbents (satellite, cable and terrestrial) to lose market share to the internet and to a lesser extent, mobile.
Although the picture is relatively similar across all geographical regions, there are a few key differences, reflecting the relative maturity of each market. For example, in most markets satellite is already a well-established channel with limited future growth; however in China the picture is different with expected growth being second only to broadband / streaming content delivery. Chinese respondents also predict the largest take-up of mobile TV.
That’s what broadcast industry insiders think. What about you?
