Posts Tagged ‘technology trends’

Impressions of CES 2010 — 3D and ATSC Mobile DTV

broadcast industry technology trends, content delivery, technology trends | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jan 12 2010

Last week I made my annual winter pilgrimage to Las Vegas for the 2010 CES exhibition.

Walking the crowded show floor was like being inside of a giant Best Buy with 100,000+ other people. 

I spent most of my time at CES at the conference, and I have mixed feelings about the sessions I attended. While there were some quite good panels — particularly in the USC Emerging Tech and the excellent Arlen / Greenwald “UpNext” tracks — I found many of the sessions to be disappointing. Many sessions were long on commercial plugs and short on new information.  I also found the multiple concurrent sessions difficult to navigate, something that was not helped by CEA’s show guide / conference program, which was poorly laid out and confusing.

As most know by now, the big topics at CES were 3D, think TVs, mobile broadcasting and making money (or  not) from online content.

3D was everywhere at the show, and there have been countless reports of how many companies are betting their future on 3D.   In many of conference sessions, panelists expressed optimism for 3D — tech vendors talked about how they will have the products available, while broadcasters & content owners talked about the amount of 3D content they are going to produce / broadcast.  Personally I am skeptical about near-term consumer take-up of 3D.  Consumers who have recently upgraded to HD are unlikely to re-up for 3D any time soon, and even my early-adopter friends have said they are unlikely to put on 3D glasses to watch sports or movies.  Time will tell, and I am sure we will all be hearing much about 3D between now and the NAB show in April.

Other than they hype surrounding 3D the most interesting aspect of CES for me was a small group of booths that were showing off ATSC mobile DTV broadcasting.  US broadcasters are serious about mobile, and they were there in force along with some well established (Harris, LG) and new technology vendors.  According to several of the broadcasters and exhibitors I spoke with, there are already 30 broadcasters on the air with mobile ATSC DTV. 

More significantly according to these sources however, is that there are 200+ more local broadcasters who are planning to launch a mobile service in the near future.  These broadcasters have already spent a significant amount of money to convert to DTV, and the incremental cost to also broadcast to mobile is very small (the maximum number I heard was $150,000, with many broadcasters saying they could do it for much less).

This low cost of entry, combined with a potential of new revenue as well as the political controversy about use of spectrum is sure to make ATSC mobile DTV one of the major topics at NAB this year.  Whereas 3D is a future possibility for broadcasters, it seems to me that ATSC mobile DTV is going to happen in the near term. Broadcasters such as Sinclair, ION and others are absolutely committed to the technology, and there are many vendors on board — with more undoubtedly to follow — despite the fact that there are very few receivers and even fewer viewers at this time. 

It remains to be seen whether ATSC mobile DTV can be developed into a viable commercial offering, but this will not stop a great deal of hardware and software being sold to US broadcasters.  The barriers to entry are low (in terms of incremental cost), and the potential political victory with regard to spectrum, not to mention a new potential revenue stream practically guarantees that ATSC mobile DTV  will be coming soon to a local broadcaster near you.

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Where do broadcast technology vendors see sales growth over next 2-3 years?

broadcast industry technology trends, broadcast technology market research | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jul 30 2009

In previous posts, I’ve looked at technology trends in the broadcast industry from the point of view of both broadcasters and vendors, including how an analysis of broadcast industry technology trends shows that vendors and broadcasters do not always have the same commercial interests.

As part of the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey, I have also studied trends that are specific to broadcast technology vendors.  For example: where do broadcast technology vendors sell products today;  how do they see their geographic sales mix changing over time;  where they plan to open new sales offices in order to capitalize on future growth potential; and what they would like to improve in their organizations by ranking a list of eight potential issues. 

Nearly 550 broadcast technology vendors responded to these questions, and my next couple of posts will look at these findings. To start, let’s look at where vendors think they will see the most sales growth over the next 2-3 years.

I asked vendors to choose the geographic territory where they think will see the most growth over the next 2-3 years.  The results are summarized in the table below:

Question: Which territories do you think will see the most sales growth over the next 2-3 years – in percentage terms?

Vendor Market Growth Expectations

The vast majority of vendors believe that China will be the fastest growing region in the next 2-3 years, an average of 20%.  This view is held by vendors across the world.

Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America are also expected to grow strongly, each by an average of 13-14%.  Although less developed, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to grow by less (an average of 10%).  The least developed region, Africa, is considered to be the territory with the least potential for growth (an average of only 6% in

Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America are also expected to grow strongly, each by an average of 13-14%.  Although less developed, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to grow by less (an average of 10%).  The least developed region, Africa, is considered to be the territory with the least potential for growth (an average of only 6% in the next few years).

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Let the broadcaster beware…. Business interests of broadcasters not always aligned with those of vendors

market research, technology trends | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jul 14 2009

I have written several times about technology trends in the broadcast industry, including a look at how trends vary by geographic region, and what technology trends are most important to broadcasters.   Having done this, I decided to look more deeply at the trends that are the most important to broadcasters, and then compare this to others in the supply chain. What I found is that there are important differences between the business interests of technology suppliers (vendors and SIs) and technology buyers (broadcasters).

To get this data, I presented the nearly 5,000 people who responded to the Big Broadcast Survey (BBS) with a list of 15 industry trends and asked to choose three trends from the list (ranking them 1-3) that they feel will have the most significant impact on the way they do business over the next 2-3 years. Because this question is about what’s important to the business of the respondents, it reveals much about their motivations. 

The results, which are summarized in the chart below, show that the commercial motivations of those supplying technology (vendors and systems integrators) are not always aligned with technology buyers (broadcasters).

 Question: Please rank in order (1-3) which of the following technology trends are most important to your business, with 1 being most important

Trends -- Broadcasters vs Vendors & SIs

 

Here’s a quick round-up of the differences between what’s important to technology buyers versus technology suppliers:

More Important to Technology Buyers (Broadcasters):

  • Transition to HDTV operations
  • Transition to tapeless workflows
  • Automated workflows
  • File-based workflows
  • Multiplatform delivery

 

More Important to Technology Suppliers (Vendors and Sis):

  • IP content delivery
  • Advanced encoding techniques (e.g. h.264)
  • Video on Demand
  • Transition to 3Gbps operations (1080p)
  • On-line advertising
  • 3D TV
  • Set-top box PVR/DVR
  • 4K production
  • Network DVR
  • 2K production

 

Looking at this, it seems to me that:

  • the trends that are most important to broadcasters are about finishing what they started and making it work in practice (transition to HD), becoming more efficient (tapeless, file-based, automated workflows) and increasing revenues (multi-platform content delivery)
  • the trends that are most important to technology suppliers are about new technology

 

Let’s look at this in another way… The table below depicts this, expressed as the difference between the average for each respondent group and the overall global average.  As you can see there are some major differences between broadcasters and their suppliers, particularly when it comes to transition to HDTV, tapeless workflows, automated workflows and the transition to 3Gbps:

Trend Variation -- between broadcastes and vendors

Broadcasters believe that refining workflows and gaining efficiencies, particularly through digital file management, is very important to their business, whereas vendors and systems integrators place more importance on next generation technologies such as 3Gbps operations.  Similarly broadcasters do not currently view IP content delivery as a stand out issue, whereas vendors and systems integrators believe this is to be the second most important trend influencing their business.

These findings are in-line with what Roger Crumpton of the IABM said at their market workshop recently — i.e. that broadcasters in today’s climate are focusing on completing existing projects (e.g. HDTV transition) and increasingly risk averse when it comes to new technology unless it can make them more efficient in some way (e.g. automated workflows).

So what does all this mean?   If a technology suppliers can more fully understand what’s most important to their customers they will have a better change of success, but only if they listen to what their customer is telling them and adjust their sales approach accordingly.

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What geographic region is the leader today in broadcast technology? What about tomorrow?

market research | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 25 2009

Have you ever wondered which parts of the world have the most advanced broadcast technology?  To find out what people in different parts of the world think about this, I asked the following question as part of the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey (almost 5,000 people in 110 countries participated):

“Which territory is currently the technology leader, and which will be the leader in 3 years?”

  • North America
  • Europe
  • Asia-Pac
  • China
  • Middle East
  • Latin America
  • Africa

 

Not surprisingly, it turns out that opinions about this question differ widely based on the geographic location of the respondent.  But for me, the results become more interesting when you look at how the respondents in each of the regions mentioned in the question view themselves in relation to the rest of the world.

The definition of “technology leadership” is fairly subjective, so when asking this question, I left the interpretation to each respondent.   The broadcast technology landscape varies from region to region, and the deployment of new (advanced) technology is driven by a wide variety of factors.  These could include governmental policy (e.g. analog switch-off), competition (from both broadcasters and vendors), new delivery platforms, new content monetization techniques, and of course a constant stream of new products and innovations. 

Asking which region is the leader today is one thing, but asking broadcast industry insiders to predict which region will be the leader in three years is another matter, and the responses may surprise some people — indeed, respondents from virtually every region of the world expect their own leadership to decrease over the next three years from where it is today! 

I found that North America is the geographical region which is considered by many to be the technology leader today.  However, respondents from every region (including those in North America) expect this lead to decrease over the next three years. 

Many respondents expect to see Asia, and China in particular, emerging as a strong challenger for technology leadership, with EMEA widely expected to lose ground.  Interestingly, respondents in Asia-Pacific do not share this view to the same extent, believing the North America and EMEA will remain dominant in terms of technology leadership.

The following charts show how respondents from each region answered this question. 

 

The view from Europe, Middle East and Africa 

 
Which territory is currently the technology leader, and which will be the leader in 3 years? Responses from EMEA
Respondents in EMEA believe that the current technology leaders (North America and Europe) will be challenged by China in the next three years. In particular, North America’s dominance of the industry is felt to be under threat.

 

 

  The view from North America (USA and Canada) 

Question: Which territory is currently the technology leader, and which will be the leader in 3 years? -- Response from North America

 

North American see themselves as the current technology leaders, and expect this to continue unto the future, albeit by a decreasing percentage.  Like other regions, North Americans see China as an emerging technology leader.

 

 

The view from Latin America 

Question: Which territory is currently the technology leader, and which will be the leader in 3 years? -- Response from Latin America

 Latin American participants see North America as today’s technology leader, but expect it to be eclipsed by Asia over the next several years.

 

 

The view from Asia Pacific (including Australia and New Zealand) 

Who is technology leader -- response from Asia Pacific

Respondents from Asia see North America and Europe virtually swapping places in terms of technology leadership over the next several years.  These respondents also expect China to increase in prominence, even as their own decreases.

 

 

The view from China

 Question: Which territory is currently the technology leader, and which will be the leader in 3 years? - Responses from China

Chinese respondents see North America as today’s technology, and expect this to continue into the future.  Unlike other regions, Chinese repsondents se their own prominence decreasing slightly over time.
 
 
So that’s what the world thinks.  What do you think?

 

 

 

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Broadcasters see streaming / broadband as fastest growing content delivery method

content delivery, market research, technology trends | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 24 2009

Almost as soon as I uploaded the post which-method-of-content-delivery-will-grow-the-fastest?  I started to wonder what broadcasters themselves think about this question.  To find out, I ran a query on the data from the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey, and compiled the results in the chart below.

This represents how 1000+ broadcasters around the world answered this question: 

 ”Which of these delivery methods do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?”

  • WiMAX
  • Terrestrial
  • Cable
  • Downloads to mobile devices
  • Satellite
  • Mobile TV
  • IPTV
  • Broadband / Streaming (web TV)

 

 #1 by a good margin is broadband / streaming, followed by IPTV and mobile TV. 

 

The fastest growing content delivery methods according to broadcasters

The fastest growing content delivery methods according to broadcasters

 

These top three choices get 72% of the vote from broadcasters on this question.  That’s pretty interesting since these are potentially competitive (and certainly disruptive) to the broadcaster’s traditional business model.

Does this means that broadcasters are predicting their own demise, or does this acknowlement of the  growth of new content delivery methods mean they will embrace them and tap into the new ways of doing business?

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Which method of content delivery will grow the fastest?

content delivery, market research, technology trends | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 24 2009

It’s not news that the delivery of video content is changing dramatically.  Consumers want an anywhere, anytime media experience; and content owners are doing all they can to meet their needs.   But with so many choices now available, I was curious to know which delivery method broadcast industry insiders think will grow the fastest.

To find out, I included the following question in the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey:

 ”Which of these delivery methods do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?”

  • WiMAX
  • Terrestrial
  • Cable
  • Downloads to mobile devices
  • Satellite
  • Mobile TV
  • IPTV
  • Broadband / Streaming (web TV)

 

Almost 5000 people in 110 countries responded and their answers are shown below, broken down by geography to show regional variation:

 

Which method of content delivery do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?

Which method of content delivery do you think will grow the fastest over the next three years, in percentage terms?

 

Keep in mind that this question asked which delivery method will grow the fastest, not which one do you think will win in the long-term, or which one are you willing to pay $50 per month for.  It also asked about growth in percentage terms, so if a distribution method is small today it can grow quickly in percentage terms from a small base, while it’s much more difficult for established content delivery methods such as cable & satellite to grow in percentage terms.

Nevertheless, the respondents expect to see major changes in content delivery methods over the next three years, led by “Broadband / Streaming.”    In fact, with the exception of Asia, all geographies expect broadband / streaming delivery of content to be the fastest growing delivery methods, which is interesting news for CDNs.  In Asia (excluding China), IPTV is predicted to be the fastest growing content delivery medium.  All territories therefore expect the current incumbents (satellite, cable and terrestrial) to lose market share to the internet and to a lesser extent, mobile.

Although the picture is relatively similar across all geographical regions, there are a few key differences, reflecting the relative maturity of each market.  For example, in most markets satellite is already a well-established channel with limited future growth; however in China the picture is different with expected growth being second only to broadband / streaming content delivery.  Chinese respondents also predict the largest take-up of mobile TV.

That’s what broadcast industry insiders think.  What about you?

 
 

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The broadcaster’s view of technology trends

market research | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 23 2009

I’ve recently been looking at how broadcast technology trends vary by geographic region, based on the research data from the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey. The examples I have shown previously look at the differences in technology trends based solely on geography. 

Now it’s time to get a bit more granular and look at how just broadcasters view these technology trends, and whether there are regional variations in their opinions.   Approximately 1,400 broadcasters participated in the study.  Each was presented with a list of 15 industry trends and asked to choose the three trends from the list (ranking them 1-3) that they feel will have the most significant impact on the way they do business over the next 2-3 years.  The chart below shows their responses, which are weighted based on how they were ranked by the respondents.  If a trend was ranked most important, its weight=3; if a trend was ranked #2, its weight=2; and if a trend was ranked #3, it is weight=1.  

 

The broadcaster's view of industry trends by region

The broadcaster's view of industry trends by region

 

In general it appears that broadcasters around the world are roughly aligned in terms of overall opinion of technology trends, but there are a few regional variations. 

Just as with the overall market, the transition to HDTV and tapeless workflows are the top trends for broadcasters, followed by multiplatform delivery and file-based workflows.  Interestingly, broadcasters in EMEA rank the move to file-based workflows higher than their counterparts in the Americas and Asia, while ranking multi-platform content delivery lower.

Otherwise, it is broadcasters in Asia  who vary from their counterparts in the Americas and EMEA. 

For example, broadcasters in Asia rank the following trends differently than their counterparts in the Americas and EMEA (although some of these are still at the low end of the range):

* IP content delivery (lower)

* automated worflows higher (higher)

* 3DTV (higher)

* Set-top box PVR (higher)

* Network PVR (higher)

 

Once again, some of the trends that we often read about in the trade press — e.g. the transition to 3Gbps and 3DTV — are relatively far down the list of business priorities for broadcasters (#9 and #11 respectively), which implies that broadcasters are continuing to move to HDTV operations while striving for efficiency in their operations rather than pursuing new technology. 

 

Here’s the full list of technology trends from the study, in the order that they were ranked by the broadcasters:

  Broadcasters — Asia Broadcasters — Americas Broadcasters — EMEA
1 Transition to HDTV Transition to HDTV Transition to HDTV
2 Tapeless workflows Tapeless workflows Tapeless workflows
3 Automated workflows Multi-platform delivery File-based workflows
4 Multi-platform delivery File-based workflows Multi-platform delivery
5 File-based workflows IP content delivery IP content delivery
6 IP content delivery Automated workflows Automated workflows
7 Advanced encoding techniques (e.g. h.264) Advanced encoding techniques (e.g. h.264) Advanced encoding techniques (e.g. h.264)
8 Video on Demand Video on Demand Video on Demand
9 Transition to 3Gbps (1080p) Transition to 3Gbps (1080p) Transition to 3Gbps (1080p)
10 3D TV On-line advertising On-line advertising
11 Set-top box PVR/DVR 3D TV 3D TV
12 On-line advertising 4K production 2K production
13 Network DVR Set-top box PVR/DVR 4K production
14 4K production 2K production Set-top box PVR/DVR
15 2K production Network DVR Network DVR

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Regional Variation in Broadcast technology Trends — HDTV Still Top Trend

market research | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 22 2009

In a previous post about broadcast  industry trends, I looked at at a ranking of top trends in the broadcast industry and made the comment that there  is considerable variation in response when you segment data by geography and customer type.  One of the really interesting things about the data in the 2009 BBS is that is can be sliced and diced in many ways, thereby providing insight through granular analysis. 

Here’s an example of how trends can vary by geographic region:

2009 BBS trends -- regional variations

 This chart shows responses to the same question as the previous post — i.e.  ”please choose from this list the top three trends that will most affect the way your company does business over the next 2-3 years” — from the point of view of people in different geographies.  Once again, a simple weighting formula was used to generate these rankings – if  a technology was ranked 1st (weight=3), 2nd (weight=2) or 3rd(weight=1).  This was done to illustrate the relative importance of  each technology trend to the respondent.  The trends in this chart are then expressed as a percentage of the total weighted votes.  As you can see, there are some interesting differences between the views of respondents in the Americas, EMEA and Asia.

While the transition to HDTV is still the top trend for all three geographies, there are differences in how important this trend is to the businesses of the respondents.  In the Americas, the transition to HDTV scores 23.79%; in EMEA is scores 21.92% and in Asia is scores 17.36%.  There are similar difference in the scores of the “file-based workflows” question.  This trend appears significantly more important to Europeans than it is to Americas and especially to respondents in Asia.

 A couple more observations:

  • Transition to HD and tapeless workflows are the top two trends in all three regions — despite the variations in importance of these trends relative to one another
  • Some of the trends that are in the news these days — e.g. transition to 3Gbps and 3DTV did not score particularly high.  Perhaps the reason we read about these trends in trade publications is that this vendors want to push the next new thing, while their customers want to complete the transition (to HD or tapeless for example) that they are in the middle of now, rather than worrying about the next new thing.
  • A few of the more “advanced” trends (multi-platform content delivery, 3D TV) scored higher in Asia than they did in the Americas or EMEA

Here’s the full list of the 15 trends from the study, ranked in order for each region.

       EMEA Americas Asia
1      Transition to HDTV Transition to HDTV Transition to HDTV
2      Tapeless Workflows Tapeless workflows Tapeless Workflows
3      File-based workflows IP content delivery Multi-platform content delivery
4      IP content delivery File-based workflows IP content delivery
5      Multi-platform content delivery Multi-platform content delivery Automated workflows
6      Automated workflows Video on Demand Advanced encoding techniques
7      Advanced encoding techniques Automated workflows Video on Demand
8      Video on Demand Advanced encoding techniques 3D TV
9      Transition to 3Gbps Transition to 3Gbps File-based workflows
10     On-line advertising On-line advertising Transition to 3Gbps
11     2K production 3D TV Set-top box PVR/DVR
12     4K production 2K production 2K production
13     Set-top box PVR/DVR 4K production On-line advertising
14     3D TV Set-top box PVR/DVR Network DVR
15     Network DVR Network DVR 4K production 

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Transition to HDTV tops global trends for broadcast industry insiders

market research | Posted by Joe Zaller
Jun 22 2009
As part of the 2009 Big Broadcast Survey, we surveyed the opinions of almost 5,000 people in 110 countries about broadcast technology vendor brands and industry trends. 

 

This was done by presenting all respondents — including those who identified themselves as technology suppliers such as vendors and systems integrators as well as those who identified themselves as technology buyers such as broadcasters and cable/satellite/IPTV operators –  with a list of 15 industry trends and asking them to choose  the three trends from the list that (ranking them 1-3) that they feel will have the “most significant impact on the way they do business over the next 2-3 years.”

By weighting the results according to whether a technology was ranked 1st (weight=3), 2nd (weight=2) or 3rd (weight=1), the relative importance of the technologies on a global basis, expressed as a percentage of the total weighted votes, is shown in the chart below. 

 
Summary of Globale Trends in Broadcast Industry

Summary of Global Trends in Broadcast Industry

The transition to high-definition operations is the key trend influencing the industry at the moment.  However the movement from tape to file video, and IP content delivery are also key global issues for the industry.

Following those issues in global importance are multi-platform content delivery, advanced encoding techniques, video-on-demand and the transition to 3Gbps within studio facilities.  Trends such as 3D TV are currently viewed as second-tier issues, but are likely to become increasingly important in the near future.

Of course because this chart represents the full sample, it does not account for the difference in opinion between different respondent types and geographic regions.  Doing this shows that there is  considerable variation between customers and regions — I’ll publish some examples of this in future posts.

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